Politickr TV

Politickr, which tracks daily developments at prediction markets around the web, is going digital. Check out our first video on today's political trading news, and chime in with any ideas for future coverage.

The Race to Replace Gillibrand in the House

Scott Murphy, the conservative Democrat running to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in the NY-20 special election next week,  now leads his Republican rival by 4 points according to the latest poll released by Siena Research. 

In very early trading on Intrade, however, the story is quite different. Republican Jim Tedisco still enjoys a 60-40 margin. Obviously, since only 61 shares have been traded, the contract is not yet a reliable indication of where things are headed over the weekend.  

Wiser Than The Crowd, in a post published before this morning's latest poll results were released, pegged the race at 50/50.

It's also unclear if and how the hatchet job published in today's NY Times about Kirsten Gillibrand's time as a lawyer at Davis Polk & Wardwell, a firm at which Politickr also once worked, will impact the race in the final weekend. 

Bottom Line - This is bound to remain a tight race, but there's an opportunity for some short term gains if you buy undervalued shares of Murphy now. He will likely benefit from even tepid endorsements from the White House and a last-minute push from the DNC.

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Caroline Kennedy Is Out

Breaking - The New York Times is reporting that Caroline Kennedy has decided to remove her name from consideration as Hillary Clinton's replacement in the Senate.

NY Post Claims It's Caroline

While the NY Post has so far wisely resisted giving Caroline Kennedy the full Dick Gephardt treatment and plastering her picture on its front page under the headline "Patterson Picks Kennedy," it is certainly heading in that direction. In an article by Fred Dicker in this morning's paper, the Post proclaims that Kennedy is Governor Patterson's "certain" pick to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate.

Not surprisingly, Caroline Kennedy's stock shot up 19 points at Intrade in early morning trading, reaching 85 for the first time in weeks. As Wiser Than The Crowd points out, however, consistency on this point hasn't exactly been the Post's strong suit. Last month, it relegated the Queen of Camelot to a longshot, claiming she had a "1 in 20 shot at best."

As usual, the NY Daily News is striking a more measured tone. While it says that President-elect Obama is backing Kennedy, it stops short of claiming a decision has already been made.

"My BlackBerry is emitting smoke from people e-mailing me the latest rumor," said one Democratic operative quoted in the article. "This whole thing has taken on a life of its own. There may be a method to this madness, but it's madness."

Libby Pardon Before Bush Scoots?

Politico puts the odds of a Scooter Libby Pardon at 1 to 2, slightly lower than the current asking price at Intrade.

With so many pardon prospects and so little time, Intrade could open a whole new slate of contracts on crooks likely to get their convictions cleared before Bush vacates his office. According to Politico, the most likely candidates include Michael Milken (2 to 1 odds), infamous former AG A.G. (1 to 1 odds) and military and CIA interrogators (4 to 1 odds). 

While Dick Durbin is supporting a pardon for George Ryan, the latest Illinois governor to be convicted on corruption chares, Politickr doesn't think even Bush would have the audacity to pardon Ryan given his successor's shenanigans. 

Still, in his last interview before leaving office, Bush was suspiciously silent:

LARRY KING:  We're back with our remaining moments with the president and first lady of the United States.  Pardons; are we going to have some? You are not going to be specific.  Will pardons come? 

G. BUSH:  I am not going to talk about them. 

KING:  Why? They're logical. 

G. BUSH:  Because I don't feel like talking about them and I'm not going to.  If there are any coming, you will find out about it in due course. 

KING:  Due course, meaning you have a week. 

L. BUSH:  Exactly.  You will find out soon. 

G. BUSH:  Actually less. 

KING:  So it will be less than a week. 

G. BUSH:  Yes. 

KING:  You don't have to?  It's not required? 

G. BUSH:  No. 

KING:  You don't have to do any pardons? 

G. BUSH:  I don't have to do any. I can do some. Nor do I have to talk about it. 

Intrade Launches Contract on Senate Replacements

Politickr is pleased that Intrade has just added contracts about Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama's senate replacements, but is somewhat puzzled by the list of contenders, particularly with respect to Clinton.

Currently, of the three candidates listed as possible successors to Clinton, two have already withdrawn their names from consideration. Bill Clinton and Robert Kennedy Jr. have both said that they're not interested. While Andrew Cuomo, the third option, would reportedly take the seat, Caroline Kennedy, known for being much more coy than Cuomo, is reportedly also thinking about it. 

Since only one share has been traded on the Clinton replacement contract so far, Politickr strongly suggests adding several more names to the list, starting with Caroline Kennedy. According to Politico, other widely mentioned candidates include: Reps. Carolyn Maloney, Jerrold Nadler, Steve Israel, Nydia Velazquez and Brian Higgins, and Nassau County exec Tom Suozzi.